It’s wishful thinking to expect that the economy will bounce back to pre June 2008 levels this year. 2009 will be a land grab year for both smart businesses with money to spend and entrepreneurs with business models built on performance marketing.

  1. Yahoo will merge or be acquired. It’s inevitable. With a stock pricing straddling $10/share, a group like Ichan’s will continue buying huge portions of Yahoo stock causing stock prices to be driven up even further. With Ichan already controlling enough chairs to influence who takes the CEO chair and playing an active and persistent role on the Board, the company is headed in the right direction for an M&A.
  2. Facebook will come to a realistic evaluation. The $15B hype behind Facebook will be put into check. With VC cash drying up, Facebook will have no choice by to increase advertising activities via performance based online advertising. Hopefully this activities won’t scare off users like Beacon. Not only can we expect a more practical valuation of the traffic Facebook is riding, but also a precedent for the valuation of social media in general.
  3. Ebay will continue to outpace Amazon. Already ahead by a slim margin in unique monthly visitors, Ebay will outpace Amazon in growth and possibly in stock value. With consumers still spending on tight budgets, the of increase in second hand shopping Ebay gained over Christmas will play an active role in consumer shopping patterns after Q1 2009 post Christmas lull.
  4. P2P lending will rise as a serious source of personal finance. Consumers still need small loans despite the average American carrying thousands in credit card debt, and banks raising personal credit rates. P2P lending sites like lendingclub and prosper will rise as a preferred source of banking; providing consumers with easy access to small time loans and empowering investors with additional revenue streams.
  5. Angel investing will reach tipping point. Angel investing will become a more prominent and sought after source of funding, given lower startup costs as well as the bootstrapping mentality needed for survival in a recession.  Although still playing an active role with high exit value ventures, VCs aren’t going to take the risks that they have been in the last 2 years. Savvy angel investors will not only provide short term capital but can fill the void in provided valued added strategic guidance.

Let’s see how the ball rolls towards the end of 2009 Q1. Good luck to anyone starting a business this year!